State of the World 2010: The Rise and Fall of Consumer Cultures

In 2006, the 65 high-income countries where consumerism is most dominant accounted for 78 percent of consumption expenditures but just about 16 percent of world population. People in the United States alone spent 9.7 Trillion on consumption that year-- about $32,400 per person-- accounting for 32 percent of global expenditures with only 5 percent of global population. It is these countries that most urgently need to redirect their consumption patterns, as the planet cannot handle such high levels of consumption.
Indeed, if everyone lived like Americans, Earth could sustain only 1.4 billion people. At slightly lower consumption levels, though still high, the planet could support 2.1 billion people. But even at middle-income levels-- the equivalent of what people in Jordan and Thailand earn on average today-- Earth can sustain fewer people than are alive today. These numbers convey a reality that few want to confront in today's world of 6.8 billion, modern consumption patterns-- even at relatively basic levels-- are not sustainable.
A 2009 analysis of consumption patterns across socioeconomic classes in India made this particularly clear. Consumer goods are broadly accessible in India today. Even at annual income levels of about $2,500 per person in purchasing power parity (PPP), many households have access to basic lighting and a fan. As incomes reach about $5,000 per year PPP, access to television becomes standard and access to hot water heaters grows. By $8,000 a year PPP, most people have an array of consumer goods, from washing machines and DVD players to kitchen appliances and computers. As incomes rise further, air conditioning and air travel become common.
Not surprisingly, the richest 1 percent of Indians (10 million people), who earn more than $24,500 PPP a year, are now each responsible for more than 5 tons of CO2 emissions annual-- still just a fifth of American per capita emissions but twice the average level of 2.5 tons per person needed to keep temperature rises under 2 degrees Celsius. Even the 151 million Indians earning more than $6,500 per person PPP are living above the threshold of 2.5 tons per person, while the 156 million Indians earning $5,000 are nearing it, producing 2.2 tons per person.
As the Ecological Footprint Indicator and Idnian survey demonstrate, even at income levels that most observers would think of as subsistence-- about $5,000-6,000 PPP per person a year-- people are already consuming at unsustainable levels. And today, more than a third of the world's people live above this threshold.
The adoption of sustainable technologies should enable basic levels of consumption to remain ecologically viable. From Earth's perspective, however, the American or even the European way of life is simply not viable. A recent analysis found that in order to produce enough energy over the next 25 years to replace most of what is supplied by fossil fuels, the world would need to build 200 square meters of solar photovoltaic panels every second plus 100 square meters of solar thermal plus 24 3-megawatt wind turbines every hour nonstop for the next 25 years. All of this would take tremendous energy and materials-- ironically frontloading carbon emissions just when they most need to be reduced-- and expand humanity's total ecological impact significantly in the short term.
Add this to the fact that population is projected to grow by another 2.3 billion by 2050 and even with effective strategies to curb growth will probably still grow by at least another 1.1 billion before peaking. Thus is becomes clear that while shifting technologies and stabilizing population will be essential in creating sustainable societies, neither will succeed without considerable changes in consumption patterns, including reducing and even eliminating the use of certain goods, such as cars and airplanes, that have become important parts of life today for many. Habits that are firmly set-- from where people live to what they eat-- will all need to be altered and in many cases simplified or minimized. These, however, are not changes that people will want to make, as their current patterns are comfortable and feel "natural," in large part because of sustained and methodical efforts to make them feel just that way.
In considering how societies can be put on paths toward a sustainable future, it is important to recognize that human behaviors that are so central to modern cultural identities and economic systems are not choices that are fully in consumers' control. They are systematically reinforced by an increasingly dominant cultural paradigm: consumerism.